NEWS NOTES ON SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCESForecasting Oil Production  Oil production is closely tied to water resources in various forms. Th...

NEWS NOTES ON SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCESForecasting Oil Production  Oil production is closely tied to water resources in various forms. This message is only a brief introduction to a complex subject. In some cases there is controversy about methods and results.“Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) is a graphical procedure used for analyzing declining production rates and forecasting future performance of oil and gas wells. Oil and gas production rates decline as a function of time; loss of reservoir pressure, or changing relative volumes of the produced fluids, are usually the cause. Fitting a line through the performance history and assuming this same trend will continue in future forms the basis of DCA concept. It is important to note here that in absence of stabilized production trends the technique cannot be expected to give reliable results.”“The technique is not necessarily grounded in fundamental theory but is based on empirical observation of production decline. Three types of declines are observed: ExponentialHyperbolicHarmonic”“J.J. Arps collected these ideas into a comprehensive set of equations defining the exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic declines. His work was further extended by other researchers to include special cases. Following section gives a historical perspective of work done on the subject;The major application of DCA in the industry today is still based on equations and curves described by Arps. Arps applied the equation of Hyperbola to define three general equations to model production declines.”A great deal more information, including mathematical formulations, can be found athttps://petrowiki.org/Production_forecasting_decline_curve_analysisThe question arises about the practical results of attempting to locate adequate oil and gas supplies. A source for this information is https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/gas-and-oil/u-s-oil-production-reaches-record-high/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI79_f7unH5gIVD1YMCh3fBg-6EAAYASAAEgL8MvD_BwE“U.S. oil production was estimated at 11.7 million barrels a day during the week ending November 16, over 2 million barrels per day more than during the same time period in 2017—a 21-percent increase.  For perspective, the increase is almost equivalent to all of Mexico’s production in 2017. The Energy Information Administration expects oil production to average 10.9 million barrels per day this year and over 12 million barrels per day in 2019. U.S. oil production has doubled in the past eight years due to oil produced by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in shale basins. Earlier this year, the United States had overtaken oil production in Saudi Arabia and Russia on a monthly basis, making it the world’s top oil producing nation. In less than a decade, U.S. companies have drilled 114,000 wells in the Permian Basin of Texas alone and many of them could turn a profit with crude prices as low as $30 a barrel.”USGS work on oil and gas production can be found at https://www.usgs.gov/centers/cersc/science/world-oil-and-gas-resource-assessments?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects“The USGS World Energy Project conducts geologic studies that provide an understanding of the quantity, quality, and geologic distribution of world oil and gas resources. Our geologic studies are conducted in an impartial manner and are performed in collaboration and partnership with energy experts within and outside government. Through synthesis and improved understanding of global oil and gas data, we shall establish a geologic basis for predicting energy production trends, we shall discuss logical implications and consequences of energy occurrence for public policy, and we shall provide for the education of society about energy issues.”